“Like steroids for hurricanes” – Scientists say Helene just a warning of what is to come

By Dana Drugmand

As the full extent of the devastation unleashed by Hurricane Helene in the southeastern United States becomes clear nearly two weeks after the monstrous storm made landfall, a new scientific analysis confirms what many have already surmised – climate change worsened the hurricane’s catastrophic impacts.

As Helene demonstrates, more destructive storms are likely in store as society continues to burn oil, gas and coal, driving a rapidly warming Earth, the analysis warns.

“Yet again, our study has shown that hurricanes will keep getting worse if humans keep burning fossil fuels and subsequently warming the planet,” said Friederike Otto, a climatologist at Imperial College London and lead of the World Weather Attribution initiative, which released the study on Wednesday.

In the aftermath of extreme weather events, World Weather Attribution scientists use observational data and climate models to conduct what are called rapid attribution analyses. Their analysis of Hurricane Helene revealed that climate change increased the intensity of the storm’s damaging rainfall and winds. It also found that elevated sea surface temperatures, which fueled Helene’s development, were made up to 500 times more likely by anthropogenic warming.

“It is clear that the rainfall, wind speeds and conditions leading to Hurricane Helene have all increased due to climate change,” the study states, noting that such conditions will intensify as the planet heats up.

Helene made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the Florida panhandle late on September 26, generating heavy rains, winds, and record-breaking storm surge along the coast. The storm then tracked inland, bringing torrential rains and flooding to Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia. With more than 230 reported fatalities, Helene is the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland US since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

“Unfortunately, Helene is another warning that the effects of climate change are already here,” said Julie Arrighi, Director of Programmes at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

This warning and the new analysis come as Florida braces for a hit from another major hurricane. Hurricane Milton, projected to slam into Florida’s Gulf Coast late on Wednesday, briefly upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane on Monday as it moved across overheated waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures in the area where Milton is brewing are at record-breaking highs, and scientists say that climate change made those temperatures up to 400 to 800 times more likely over the past two weeks.

Climate scientists agree that planetary warming, which is primarily driven by fossil fuel combustion, results in more destructive hurricanes. Oceans absorb the vast majority of the heat added to the Earth’s climate, and hotter marine temperatures provide more energy to fuel tropical storm systems. With the atmosphere also warming, it can retain more moisture that subsequently releases in the form of heavier rainfall.

“The heat that human activities are adding to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes,” Climate Central chief meteorologist Bernadette Woods Placky explained.